Successful Betting








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Tips for Betting on Your Own Successfully

1) Always be selective. Never bet on a large amount of games--it will only hurt you in the long term;

2) Never wager more than you can afford to lose;

3) If you do suffer a losing streak, never try to catch up all at once by doubling the size of your bets-instead, cut them. Successful gamblers let their winnings run while limiting their losses;

4) Avoid the dreaded Monday Night trap. Attempting to regain money lost over the weekend with a big time Monday night play probably means more losses (and heartache) for you;

5) Subscribe to not one but several major newsletters in order to get all the statistics and information you will need to make more effective choices;

6) Also subscribe to the top sports magazines in the field to learn even more;

7) Remember, also keep your emotions in check. Don"t bet while chasing your dreams. Make sure you select the right sports service for you that will provide you the help you need to make high-percentage bets;

8) Always get the best number, shop lines between different sportsbooks, and

9) When betting on a game that involves your favorite hometown team (bettors are fans too) bet with your head, not your heart.

How to Become a Winner
By Dr. Frank Berstein

Winning, at anything, requires a number of things to come together at just the right time with each situation being different from the next. While different factors come into play depending on the context, there are two important ingredients required to win at anything: skill and luck.

This is especially true when it comes to gambling, which in general, requires a great deal of luck mixed with skill. Sports betting, on the other hand, requires a great deal of skill mixed with a little luck. So, even if you are generally considered the unlucky type, you still can have great success betting sports-but only if you do your homework and research the event in which you plan to wager.

For sports bettors, the challenge is to get your hands on as much information as you can with regard to a particular event. The idea is to use this information to compare each team"s probability of winning and then see how your conclusion weighs with the experts-the people who make the odds.

Yes, luck is a factor in sports and many times will influence or even determine the outcome of a single game. When this happens, it inevitably goes against you, though, over the long run it probably balances itself out. Generally speaking, the vast majority of sporting events are won because of the player"s or team"s skill and determination, not luck. If luck outweighed skill then the good team would not win as often as they do. Unfortunately, we tend to remember the bad luck bets rather than the good-luck ones and completely ignore the majority of games that turned out "like they were supposed to."

Regardless, if you bet sports on a consistent basis, luck is not a major factor. Like everything else in life, it all boils down to whether you have made the necessary preparations to become knowledgeable enough about the event(s) in which you plan to bet. This includes investing time and effort to learn the sport and all its nuances; weighing all the factors in an objective non biased manner and doing it on a consistent basis. If you can, you will come out on the winning side more times than not. What this means is, you can"t let your emotions dictate by ignoring hardcore stats in favor of betting your favorite team. If you have a hard time betting against "your" team evaluate a different game to place your bet.

Before getting into some specific suggestions and strategies to help make you a winner in sports betting, remember this: It"s you against the oddsmaker, not the place or person you are placing the bet with. Think of the sportsbook simply as a middle man, who like all middle men in history, operate on a small profit.

All the bookmaker wants is for an equal number of people to bet on each side, i.e. half the bets on one team and half on the other. This way, he is guaranteed a profit for that particular event. If too many bets are being placed on one side, the sportsbook will adjust the betting line in hopes of getting people to bet the other side.

But, in reality you are going up against the oddsmaker, as it is his views on each team"s chances which determine the pointspreads. With that said, a simple flip of the coin gives you a 50% chance of winning, but it"s not too scientific and you still end up losing the vig. To break even, i.e. to overcome the sportsbook profit, means you only have to win 52.4% of your bets.

That means, achieving a modest winning percentage of 55% is very realistic with a little homework. By the same token, reaching a 65% winning rate is definitely achievable and allows you to make a comfortable profit, but it takes some legwork..

With that said, here are some proven tips to help make your sports betting experience enjoyable and, hopefully profitable:

  • Understand the sport you are betting: This may sound like simple advice, but the fact is, being a sports fan is one thing, but actually "knowing" a sport is another. Investing time and research into a particular sport, can reward you with great dividends. Remember, knowledge is power, especially when it comes to sports wagering.

    The first place to start is with your local newspaper. There you can find a wealth of information needed to make a basic, informed decision-standings, records, box scores with detailed game summaries, injuries, transactions, individual statistics, weather reports, etc.

    Next, pick up some of the many magazines, newspapers and journals dedicated to sports. Some cover the whole gamut, like The Sporting News, ESPN The Magazine and Sports Illustrated, while others are devoted to one particular sport, such as Football Digest, Baseball Weekly or The Hockey News. Thanks to the Internet, league and team Web sites can also provide you with a wealth of specific information on the sport, not to mention the particular teams and players. Speaking of which, many players have their own dedicated Web sites which are worth checking into as they provide insight into how that person is feeling about the game in general, the contest coming up, his teammates, etc.

    One thing to keep in mind when reading is not to become overburdened with statistics, as most are meaningless when it comes to betting. Rather, they make for good bar talk and water cooler arguments.

    Instead, pay attention to the critical numbers and player information of the particular sport you are betting on. For example, in baseball, it is the pitcher; in football, the quarterback.

    Whereas reading the stats can help you learn about a sport, observation can take you to the next level when it comes to learning. Therefore, watch as many games as you can. Thanks to cable and satellite TV, you can now watch just about every game in every sport. Certain systems allow you to purchase a package which gives you the ability to watch every game in every market. And, in most cases, it is very inexpensive, especially if you take into account the rewards subscribing to such a service can bring.

    While watching, keep notes which you may not read about, such as an unlucky bounce, dropped ball or a bad call. These are not mentioned in box scores and news stories, but can really help when trying to evaluate a particular match-up. These small yet key elements can be the difference between a winning bet and a losing one. Also, listen to the announcers (especially if they are the local ones for a particular team) as they may give out information from conversations they had with players and coaches, not to mention their observations while watching off-camera practices.

  • Understand the teams or individuals you are betting: Know their strengths and weaknesses. Look at them in a logical, objective matter, putting aside personal preferences-bet with your head, not your heart.

    If you are betting over the long term, don"t be too jumpy by judging a team on its last performance.
    Along the same lines, don"t be stubborn. If you made a mistake, admit it and move on. More people lose more than they have to by insisting their initial projections were right. If a team or player is underachieving, acknowledge and reanalyze your judgment. Keep track because you can always redo your projections if that player or team starts to turn things around. The idea is to look for and follow trends.

    Before betting, make sure you have a detailed understanding of each team involved. For example,note overall records, home and away records, how the team fares on artificial turf compared to natural grass, night games vs. day games, lefties against righties, etc. Compare the strengths and weaknesses of each team"s lineup. In football, compare the offensive rushing and passing statistics against the defensive rushing and passing statistics. This, combined with knowing the sport can greatly improve your chances. For example, in football, defense more times than not wins the game, especially the important ones. People who do not bet often, usually bet the offense and lose. The same holds true in baseball, where a top-rated pitcher will more than often neutralize a power-hitting team.

    In today"s world of free agency, keep track of how teams change from season-to-season and, for that matter, how they change after a trading deadline when a flurry of activity usually takes place. Because of such things as salary caps and expansion in the major sports it is getting harder and harder to keep a quality team together year-in and year-out.

    Also, look for teams which change-for better and worse-during the course of the year as players gel or problems arise. If you can spot these trends before the oddsmakers, you can have a good run-usually three to five games-before adjustments are made. As noted earlier, the idea is to look for and spot the important trends.

  • Be on the alert for value: Successful sports betting comes down to getting the most value on every bet. That means betting the side you feel has the least risk based on your assessment of the teams and the oddsmaker"s spread. For example, if you feel a team should get 4 points and the oddsmakers peg it at 7, then you are getting good value.

    In most cases, good value falls to the underdog. While most people like to root for the underdog, they do not like to bet it. But, bear in mind, betting the underdog means the team does not have to win, it just has to lose by less than the pointspread in order for you to win. This is usually the case when the spread is large, as most teams tend not to "run up" the score (except in college football, though that is now changing with the new BCS rules going into effect). Usually,when a team gets a comfortable lead, it replaces its starters and does what it can to get the game over with. The pointspread is the furthest thing from a coach"s mind, who most times won"t even know what it is because he is too busy preparing for the game to be worried about what some oddsmaker feels about his team. These types of bets will once again be found in college football.

    If you do your homework, you will find during the course of a season games the oddsmakers "missed." That is, they tended to overlook or misjudge the match-up for whatever reason. This tends to happen when a large number of games are being posted at the same time, such as during the period between the months of September and October when all four of the major sports-baseball, basketball, football and hockey -along with college football are being played at the same time. They may be the "experts," but even they can lose track of a game in all the flurry of activity, especially during this period when on a given day each sport can have a number of games scheduled.

    Finally, watch the numbers themselves, especially in the most popular betting sport-football. Minor changes in the spread can have substantial implications. For example, the difference between a 3 and 3- 1/2 pointspread can be the difference between a win or loss, as more football games are decided by 3 points than any other margin. Also, pay attention to the numbers with regard to a game"s scoring nuances. In football, teams can score a variety of ways, from 1- point to 7-points in one shot.

  • Go against the majority: Some teams-Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Lakers, Duke, New York Yankees-have gathered a very strong following, regardless of how they do against the spread. For whatever reason, each year certain teams capture the public"s attention.

    When this happens, you can usually find a good value bet, since the spread is more than likely adjusted in anticipation of the large amount of money the public may bet on. In these cases, the underdog is rewarded with a larger pointspread than it deserves. Or, sometimes, the favorite is not favored by as much as it should be.

  • Don"t overreact: While a team"s current condition and recent record is a major consideration when factoring in your bets, do not put too much emphasis on the most recent game. The score and/or result may not actually reflect a team"s actual form. Remember, every team has a bad day for a variety of reasons: injuries, bad call, weather, fatigue, etc. Also keep in mind the "official score and stats" and the "true score and stats." For example, a team is trailing 14 to 10 late in the fourth quarter. With time running down, they punch it across the goal line but the running back fumbles and its recovered by the defense and run back 100 yards for a touchdown. The box score will show a final of 21-10, yet it should have been 17-14. Keeping detailed records will help you remember this the next time the teams play each other, not to mention the next week.

  • Note where a team is playing: We"ve all heard of the homefield advantage, but, in betting we need to pay attention to whether a team is playing at home or on the road. While the advantage varies from sport-tosport and team-to-team, it is always something to keep in mind. Some sports, like basketball have heavy home field advantages. Also, teams which may have had a poor road trip will be re-energized coming home and do well.

    Pay attention to good road teams. Some make a habit of performing well on the road. Also be on the lookout for teams coming off long trips, i.e., traveling across the country, playing back-to-back games, playing day/night games.

    This is why it is a good idea to project ahead by looking at a team"s schedule. Doing this may give you some advantages against those oddsmakers which tend to simply favor the home team.

  • Pay attention to injuries: Check the injury reports everyday, but be careful to judge the importance of them. Is the injury to a key player and, if it is, is it bad enough to affect his play or take him out of the game? How about the backup? Is he good enough or does his playing put the team at a severe disadvantage?

    This comes from knowing the team, because sometimes a bench player on one team could easily be a starter on another, and therefore, just as qualified. Also, some bench players will come out fired up, knowing this is their chance to make an impression.

    Also, injuries are usually a good time to get a good value bet, since the public generally overreacts to them and tends to tilt the scale.

  • Understand the weather, field and stadium conditions: Knowing these are extremely important, especially when betting over/under. Knowing a squad will tell you if it is a warm weather team which has trouble in freezing conditions (think of football"s Tampa Bay Buccaneers). Similarly, rain can lower the score of a football game since it usually forces teams to be more conservative and run the ball more.

    Also, pay attention to the stadium. Many arenas have their own wind and noise conditions, as well as other factors. For example, in baseball, it is the rare game when the score is low in the home park of the Colorado Rockies.

  • Watch for motivated teams: During the course of a season, different games have more meaning than others for different teams. For example, if a team has clinched a playoff spot and is going up against the worst team , it may not be motivated to give its all.

    Likewise, a team may be in a spot to knock a team out of the playoffs. Or, it may want to revenge a bad lose earlier in the season. Rivalries also push many of the statistics out the window. In the more heated ones, it makes no difference how good or bad one team may be compared to the other, as the games are always close.

  • Be objective and selective: As we said earlier, bet with your head, not your heart. Use the knowledge you gained to make your bet, not emotional considerations. You may have grown up liking a team but that does not mean you have to bet it to win every time. The same holds true for your alma mater. Just because you went to the school there doesn"t mean you have to bet its teams.

    By the same token, be selective in your bets. You are better off concentrating your efforts on a few games instead of the whole board. For example, betting every football game each week will pretty much guarantee you lose money. Study up on three to four and bet those, you"ll stand a better chance of coming out ahead in the long run.

  • Don"t chance losers: Don"t throw bad money at bad money. This is the biggest mistake unsuccessful bettors make. Even the most knowledgeable sports bettors hit losing streaks, and an all-toocommon mistake is to double your next bet in order to recoup your losses.

    Instead, stop, sit down and check your records. Reevaluate your approach. And, while you are in a funk, lower the amount you bet until the winnings start coming back.

    Then, when you do hit a winning streak, increase your stake since you will have extra money to play with. But, make sure not to become overly confident and bet the house. Keep your head and senses, because like loosing streaks, winning steaks also come to an end. That is why they are called streaks. Also realize it is much easier to lose it all at once than win it. That said, don"t try to win it all back at once. Take your time and place good, solid bets and slowly build your way back up.

  • Be patient: Learning how to successfully bet on sports is the same as learning any new skill. It takes time. Yes, it may look easy when an experienced person does it but, bear in mind, he has been doing it for years. It takes time to learn and understand all the numbers and other nuances before you can feel confident.

    When starting out, place small wagers, increasing as you become better and as value bets pop up. In today"s world, there are sporting events to bet on everyday, so don"t feel compelled to bet for the sake of betting or because everyone else is doing it. Remember, there is nothing wrong with not betting a particular event, even the Super Bowl.

  • Manage your money: Managing your money is equaling important as evaluating the bet. Increase your bets only when you are showing a profit, and decrease it when you are losing.

    Set limits and budgets and stay within them. Then, fix a percentage of your betting capital for your bets. The pros will tell you to risk no more than 5% on any single bet, no matter how confident you feel.

  • Keep good records: This is essential if you want to win. How else can you follow trends, both on the field and with your bets. For example, if you are on a losing streak you can tell if maybe you unconsciously changed your betting pattern. It will also tell you how teams fare against the spread. For some teams, their actual record compared to their record against the spread is a stark contrast, so it is important to keep track of these things. Treat your records as a back book because, in effect, it is. Keep a monthly tab by going over everything you did in order to see where mistakes were made and how you can correct them. The better you are at keeping records, the easier it is to stay informed and, therefore win.



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